Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
